The Impact of Post-COVID Fiscal Policy on the Stock Market and Overall Economy

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By Arthur Dos Santos, Masai Gordon, and Adam Prince

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a rapid and severe economic downturn in the United States. The real GDP per capita, which was $58,490 in quarter 4 of 2019, dropped to $57,691 in quarter 1 of 2020, and once more to $52,387 in quarter 2 of the same year. This steep decrease in real GDP per capita was measured at a growth rate of -24.7%; ‘for comparison, the annualized growth rate from [quarter 4 in 2007] to [quarter 2 in 2009], a peak‐to‐trough known as the Great Recession, was just -3.7%,’ (Cachanosky et al. 2021). These findings speak to the severity of the ‘COVID recession’, which had a negative growth rate of nearly 7 times that of the Great Recession.  Continue reading →

The World Cup Dilemma: Prestige at a Price?

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By Alexander Kenerson and Henry Mariscal

The World Cup captures the world’s attention and unites fans around the most popular sport on the planet. Featuring the top players from 32 nations, it stands as the pinnacle of international soccer competition. The World Cup has a big influence on national economies through increased tourism, infrastructure investment, and short-term boosts to consumption. Studying it can reveal how large-scale events impact GDP, employment, and economic growth. The World Cup occurs once every four years, gaining the attention of over 1 billion viewers. Brazil was announced the host for the 2014 World Cup in 2007, while Qatar was announced as the host of the 2022 World Cup in 2010. Qatar is a small but wealthy country for its size due to its exports of oil and gas, while Brazil is a very large country with a focus on services. We are studying the effects that hosting a World Cup had on Brazil and Qatar’s labor market and economic growth. We hypothesize that being the host of a World Cup will increase economic growth and expand the labor market. Continue reading →

China’s Handing Out Keys, America’s Handing Out Second Jobs

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By Alexander Kenerson and Henry Mariscal

The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the global economy. Supply chains were dismantled, trade ground to a halt, and overall consumption plummeted, making a global recession inevitable. Faced with the urgent task of restarting their economies, governments around the world made critical policy decisions, choices that continue to shape global markets today. Housing markets, considered a cornerstone of economic stability and growth, have experienced some of the most significant impacts.

An article by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia explains how U.S. mortgage rates were affected by the COVID pandemic. This article describes how lending boosted as a result of record low interest rates starting in July 2020 that continued through 2021, with much of the lending coming from refinancing. This was unexpected coming out of the pandemic, as the immediate downturn mixed with high unemployment caused expectations of foreclosures similar to the period of the Great Recession. As a result of this hot housing market and abundance of refinancing, home prices quickly increased. In response to this, mortgage rates increased, slowing down the amount of refinancing and slowing the increase of home prices. Overall, this article illustrates how the change in the United States mortgage rate affected refinancing and home prices in the period after 2020 to an extent where the mortgage rate needed to be raised immediately. Continue reading →

The Fed’s Response to the Great Recession Compared to the COVID-19 Pandemic

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By Jeremiah Chessie and Will Cooke

In the 21st century, the United States experienced two major recessions. In 2007-2008, the U.S. housing market collapsed, leading to an economic downturn known as the Great Recession. In both recessions, the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero and launched large-scale asset purchases in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities to stabilize financial markets. In the United States, schools transitioned to online teaching, businesses shut down, and states imposed lockdowns, all happening within weeks. Shocks in supply chains around the world and reduced overall output, with people moving indoors, resulted in a sudden recession.

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The Effect of the Housing Market Collapse on Consumer Spending During the Great Recession

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By Jeremiah Chessie and Will Cooke

In 2007-2008, the U.S. housing market collapsed, leading to the start of the Great Recession. The recession was the result of a combination of factors in the early 2000s. Factors included risky lending practices, for instance, some loans were given to borrowers with no income, no job, and no assets, which were called NINJA loans. In December 2007, when the Great Recession began, other factors at play were a lack of regulation and a bursting housing bubble, which was fueled by low interest rates, combined with risky lending practices. The housing market saw a large decrease in home prices and a steep rise in foreclosures. The Great Recession was a disaster in the U.S., resulting in widespread unemployment, a collapse in household wealth, and the economy experienced an overall contraction. Another consequence that came from the housing market collapse was a decrease in consumer spending. Before the recession, consumer spending was a key component of the economy, and during the recession, consumer spending collapsed. With about 69.5% of total GDP in 2007 being consumer spending, it is important to analyze how the housing market collapse affected consumer spending. By analyzing this relationship, the overall effect of the housing crisis on the economy can be further understood, as well as the relationship between wealth and consumer behavior.

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How Unemployment Shaped Health Insurance Coverage and Higher Education During the Great Recession

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By Marie Frati and Emalee Ro

The Great Recession was the largest economic decline since World War II (Rich 2013). It was a period of severe economic downturn from December 2007 to June 2009 in the United States. During the recession, the national unemployment rate increased from 5% in December of 2007 to 9.5% in June of 2009, peaking in the months after the recession at 10% (US Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012). Real GDP also experienced a significant contraction, falling by 4.3% from 2007 to 2009. 

Given such high levels of unemployment in the US during this recession, we became interested in changes in individuals’ quality of life. When people lose access to income, they will reduce spending and investment, potentially affecting their access to health and education. The Great Recession impacted the market for higher education: institutions faced supply shocks from the lack of government funding, as well as demand impacts due to families’ low income, unemployment, and wealth (Long, 9). Furthermore, rising unemployment led to income loss, increased debt, and greater financial insecurity for families (Long, 9).  Continue reading →

An Analysis on the Effect of the 2014-16 Oil Crisis on Real GDP per capita and Unemployment in Nigeria

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By Marie Frati and Emalee Ro

Prior to the discovery of oil, Nigeria depended heavily on agricultural exports to supply its economy. Its major exports were cash crops, groundnut, hide, cocoa, coffee, and palm oil (Okotie, 72). Agriculture provided employment for about 30% of the population, and accounted for around 80% of Nigerian export earnings (Okotie, 72). Now, however, the share of agricultural products in total exports is approximately 5.01%, compared to 70% in 1960. While it was once known for its agricultural contributions to the international market, Nigeria is now a net importer of food. Something else–oil–has taken agriculture’s place.

In 1956, Shell-BP discovered commercially viable oil. Crude oil production began soon after that, resulting in over 847,000 tons of crude oil exported in 1960. Over the last four decades, the oil sector has on average accounted for over 90% of total export earnings and over 30% of Nigeria’s GDP (Aigheyisi, 31). Nigeria is currently Africa’s largest oil producer and a significant global oil exporter, with most of its oil going to Asia, Europe, and South America. The discovery of crude oil has had a substantial impact on the economic structure of Nigeria.  Continue reading →

Blog Post Formatting Tips

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For your byline (the names of the authors), use Heading 2

Note on bylines: the standard convention for author order is alphabetical by last name. Some papers order authors by level of contribution, with those who’ve made the most significant contributions appearing earlier in the list. Other papers randomize author order, which they denote with an ⓡ symbol next to the names that have been randomized (the symbol is important: otherwise, any deviation from alphabetical order is interpreted as ordering by level of contribution). Order of names matters: as researchers reference publications by authors’ names rather than paper titles, first/earlier authors are more likely to get credit and recognition for the work. For your posts, you may pick any of the three author orders (alphabetical; by contribution; random) above.

For your regular paragraphs, use Paragraph.

Before you forget, tag your post with at least one Category from the right-hand side menu: COVID-19, Great Recession, International, or US Policy.

As you work on your post, use the “Save Draft” button at the top to save your progress. You can preview what your post looks like with the “Preview” button.

Your blog posts will be very long. I recommend adding a “READ MORE” tag (the button above that looks like a sandwich of a dashed line between two solid lines) after the first couple of paragraphs of your introduction. It will show up as a “Continue reading –>” button with a hyperlink on the post preview.

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Your Benefits – Gone in a “SNAP”

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By Tatyana Avilova

From December 22, 2018, until January 25, 2019, the United States government shut down for 35 days, marking the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The shutdown caused disruptions to the operation of several federal government agencies, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). One of the USDA programs affected by the shutdown was the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides benefits to eligible, low-income families to help supplement their grocery budget. In this post, I examine the impact of the government shutdown on SNAP participation and expenditure.

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Welcome to the Spring 2025 ECON 1102 Data Project Blog!

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Economics is not just about models and theory. Our economic models are only as valuable as they are able to describe the real world. At its core, Economics wants to understand—and improve—the real world! However, oftentimes students don’t get to see empirical work by economists or don’t get the opportunity to do their own economic research until they get to higher-level elective courses (which could be in their junior year!).

The goals of this Data Project are as follows:

  1. Give you, the student, an opportunity to explore a topic you are interested in
  2. Expose you to the kind of work that economists do
  3. Give you skills to engage with the news, economic research, and data