My policy research is emphasized on the heavy fuel oil ban. The biggest problem with this ban is the existence of widely applicable exemptions to continue using heavy fuel oil. ICCT’s research shows that the proposed ban would have eliminated only 30% of HFO carriage and 16% of HFO use in 2019, and this would have reduced BC emissions by only 5%, as shown in the bottom bar of the figure below. This is important because HFO use in the Arctic is increasing—it grew 75% between 2015 and 2019. As newer ships enter the Arctic fleet, especially oil tankers and bulk carriers, more ships will qualify for exemptions. Additionally, if ships reflag to Arctic states as Russia does, more could qualify for waivers and the effectiveness of the ban would be further eroded.

One of the reasons that waivers exist is the resistance from Russia. Despite its heavy investments on LNG infrastructure, its ability to use LNG as a shipping fuel is limited. Transportation still relies heavily on heavy oil fuel. There are big energy companies in Russia investing in new fueling technologies to support this transition. Gazprom’s leadership says they are fully intent on implementing the International Maritime Organization’s HFO ban in the Arctic. But Currently they have to rely on HFO because of their outdated transportation technology. 

Some indigenous groups in Russia are also against the ban, worried about the impact it could have on livelihoods in the region. Earlier this year the Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North (RAIPON) submitted a letter of concern to the IMO over the proposed ban. It argued a block on heavy fuel oil “will entail a number of significant negative socio-economic consequences, primarily on the local population and indigenous peoples of the Arctic.” Specifically, it feared the ban would lead to higher prices for delivering goods to the tricky Arctic areas, which would have a weakening effect on the local population.

This is quite different from the indigenous communities in the other part of the world. Inuit communities in Canada, for instance, live in no less remote locations than their Russian counterparts, yet the Inuit Circumpolar Council is loudly in favor of Canada’s support for a HFO ban.

For more information on the heavy fuel oil ban and possible solutions, watch the video below!

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