The 2024 invisible primary has been underway for months, as prominent media outlets have been attempting to gauge candidate popularity on both sides of the aisle via polling. For the Democrats, Vice President Kamala Harris would seemingly be the most viable candidate if President Biden was to step aside, but her historically low approval rating has opened the door for the likes of Pete Buttigieg to step into the national spotlight. Right wing news outlets, by contrast, see former President Trump as headlining the Republican ticket if he so desires, but have also given an exorbitant amount of press to Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida.

https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/2024_biden_harris_trump.php

https://www.jstor.org/stable/20452370?seq=4

This journal article sheds light on the role that the invisible primary plays in the context of the final results of the election. They discuss the importance of momentum in presidential elections and show that candidates who receive a substantial boost of support from Iowa and/or New Hampshire at the outset of the primaries are very difficult to beat, as they are able to increasingly build momentum throughout the election period. If a candidate has success in one time period, their success in the next will be even greater and so on. They explain that what dictates a candidate’s success and begins this effect in the very first time period (ie. in Iowa/New Hampshire) is the invisible primary. It is what “sets the starting position.” They argue if a candidate enters the first primary with substantial support from the invisible primary, they will succeed at time point 1, and that success will then snowball and grow throughout the election and vice versa. Thus, the level of support in the invisible primary weighs heavily on the ultimate success of a candidate.

This image displaying Jeb Bush standing at an “invisible podium” and speaking to an “invisible audience” highlights the idea that although it may not be apparent to the public, there exists a fully orchestrated and organized pre-primary phase prior to the official election period.

In this video, Stephen Medvic associate professor of Government at Franklin & Marshall College,  explains what the invisible primary entails and specifically discusses the importance of endorsements from key party leaders during this phase.