4GW & Politics — Modern examples of why cold war tactics just don’t work.
The Drone Effect
Introduction: 4GW has made conflicts more political in their nature, which has caused a considerable shift in the landscape of warfare. This is most evident in the U.S. and Israel’s recent military strikes that targeted specific leaders of enemy states. These attacks are aimed at not only crippling the leadership of an organization but also pressuring political change by eliminating alternative political opinions. Such actions align with the tenants of 4GW by prioritizing the political leavers and pressure points required for change, rather than the conventional troop elimination. This fact is highlighted by the U.S. and Israel’s recent attacks against the Iranian government, detailed below.
BBC — Qasem Soleimani: U.S. kills top Iranian general in Baghdad airstrike 
“The drone strike comes days after protesters attacked the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, clashing with U.S. forces at the scene. The Pentagon said Soleimani approved the attacks on the embassy.” — click here for more
BBC — Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: ‘Machine-gun with A.I.’ used to kill Iran scientist
“Analysts have speculated that assassination of Fakhrizadeh was not meant to cripple the Iranian nuclear program but rather to put an end to the prospect of the U.S. rejoining the 2015 Iran nuclear deal when President-elect Joe Biden takes office next year.” — click here for more
Summary: On Jan. 3, 2020, the United States conducted a political assassination of Iran’s top military official, highlighting a prioritization of political pressure. Rather than respond to attacks on their embassy with a counterstrike on enemy forces or even directly against those who attacked the embassy itself, the U.S. officials chose a more political route and attacked a very visible official and hero within Iran. Additionally, Israel’s assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist was ultimately informed by a political calculation as the Israeli officials’ attempt to deter any nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran by increasing the region’s volatility.
4GW & Insurgents — Modern examples of why cold war tactics just don’t work
Insurgent Activity & Methods
Introduction: The conventional military strategies of WW2 provide few lessons in modern warfare and the conflicts of today. This is largely due to the emergence of 4GW and the growth of insurgency tactics. Conventional Cold War strategies, such as direct troop engagement, are ineffective in modern conflict as the line between combatants and civilians becomes increasingly blurred. This fact is showcased by the gorilla tactics implemented by the Taliban in Afghanistan detailed in the stories below.
New York Times — Afghan War Casualty Report: November 2020
“Nov. 3 Kunduz Province: four security forces killed At least four security forces were killed, and 18 security forces and 20 civilians were wounded in a car bomb blast in Imam Sahib District. The blast was followed by hours of fighting between security forces and Taliban fighters” — click here for more
National public radio: The Battle For Mosul — And Why The Threat Of ISIS Won’t Go Away
“VBIED, is a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device. And it proved to be the most lethal and fearful, psychologically fearful, weapon that ISIS had. It was, in many ways, ISIS’s answer to the airstrikes. These vehicles were suicide bombing vehicles that were kind of kamikazes on the ground. They were car bombs, essentially.”— click here for more
Department of homeland security — Large-Scale Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device Testing
“VBIEDs continue to pose a real and evolving threat to even the most secure compounds. The Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) has taken measures to address this threat directly (DHS)” — click here for more
Summary: 4GW has led to an increase in the use of unconventional tactics in places like Afghanistan, which WW2 era battle strategies like those showcased in Vietnam have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the outcomes of modern conflict are no longer determined by who has the most advanced technology as they were during the Cold War era — gorilla forces can now inflict considerable harm at minimal expense. The Taliban’s ability to cause massive casualties in Afghanistan via VBIEDs reflects a new era of warfare that has forced the Department of Homeland Security to develop new strategies to combat in the post WW2 era.
4GW & Global conflict— modern examples of why cold war tactics just don’t work
Decentralized & Deadly
Introduction: WW2 military strategies provide little assistance in modern conflicts due to the decentralization of contemporary warfare. The growing threats presented by organizations like ISIS can no longer be solved via a singular or direct conflict. The carpet bombings and large-scale invasions, which were characteristic of the WW2 conflicts, have been proven ineffective against multi-national organizations like ISIS. Such organizations are resistant to conventional methods due to their ability to disperse and infiltrate communities around the globe, ultimately allowing them to remain active even after considerable losses. This fact is highlighted in the global fight against ISIS and the inability to destroy the organization detailed in the stories below.
BBC — I.S. ‘caliphate’ defeated but jihadist group remains a threat
The U.S. Special Envoy to the Global Coalition To Defeat IS, James Jeffrey, said in mid-March that Washington believed there were still between 15,000 and 20,000 IS “armed adherents active” in the region, many of them in sleeper cells.
The head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, Gen Joseph Votel, said in February that “it was necessary to maintain a vigilant offensive against the now largely dispersed and disaggregated [I.S.] that retains leaders, fighters, facilitators, resources and the profane ideology that fuels their efforts” — click here for more
Washington post —ISIS attacks surge in Africa even as Trump boasts of a ‘100-percent’ defeated caliphate
“Extremists have even turned national parks into battle zones. In addition to the attack on the giraffe park in Niger, militants have rampaged through wildlife preserves in Burkina Faso, forcing rangers to abandon their posts. The violence has forced more than 600,000 people to flee their homes.”
Former CIA deputy director Robert Richer says “ISIS is not dead,–we destroyed the caliphate, but they’re now popping up in numerous places”.— click here for more
Summary: Despite global celebration over the destruction of ISIS’s physical caliphate, top generals, journalists, and locals all recognize the danger still presented by the organization. Modern conflicts are no longer contained within a state’s borders as an increasing number of organizations develop a global presence like ISIS. Therefore, conventional WW2 tactics, such as directly confronting one’s opposition, are no longer realistic when organizations like ISIS have expanded to multiple regions, requiring conflicts on numerous fronts. The U.S’s hesitancy in proclaiming victory over ISIS is partly due to the growing threat in Africa presented by such groups and the decentralized nature of 4GW and modern conflict.