How do I begin a page on psychohistory, given its complexity, various definitions, and abstractness?

1) By listing its definitions and history; 2) defining the term as I will use it; and 3) presenting an outline for the subpages devoted to explaining my thoughts.

Definitions and History
There are two definitions of “psychohistory” which I will list here. I’m not aware of other definitions that stray far from these.

1. Asimov’s Psychohistory (Fictional)  – “Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov’s Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire” (Wikipedia). From now on, I’ll refer to “Asimov’s Psychohistory” as “Psychohistory,” with a capital “P”.

2. Psychohistory (Non-Fictional) – “Psychohistory is an amalgam of psychology, history, and related social sciences and the humanities” (Wikipedia). Quoting from the International Psychohistorical Association, “Psychohistorians add a neglected but critically important level of explanation [to history]—identification of the unconscious motivations of individuals and groups.” I’ll refer to “Psychohistory (Non-Fictional)” – as “psycho-history”.

As one can see, both Psychohistory and psycho-history are sciences, and each involve a detailed study of the history of large groups of people. Asimov was introduced to Psychohistory by John Campbell, editor of Astounding magazine, and Psychohistory was first worked into his novels in 1942. It went on to be the basis of his Foundation Series, in which the protagonist, a mathematician, uses Psychohistory to try and reduce a Galactic apocalypse supposed to last 30,000 years to a period of only 1,000 years.

The first academic use of “psycho-history” was in 1958, in Erik Erikson’s book, Young Man Luther, a psychoanalytic biography of Martin Luther. Proto-psycho-history has its roots in books such as Freud’s Totem and Taboo (1913) and Wilhelm Reich’s The Mass Psychology of Fascism (1933) — disclaimer: I’ve read neither of these books. Contemporary psycho-history involves three main areas of research: 1) History of Childhood – how do the methods of raising children influence culture; 2) Psychobiography – can we understand the psychological motivations of specific individuals; and 3) Group Psychology – how is group behavior/consciousness shaped by its individuals.

My Views
I first learned about Psychohistory when reading’s Asimov’s Foundation Series. Absorbed by the novels and intrigued by the possibilities Psychohistory could offer, I set about fantasizing what modern psychohistory may look like. I’ll lay out all my conclusions in future Posts and Subpages.

My proposal for Modern Psychohistory:

The science of psychohistory is developed and controlled by a single organization, ideally based on the Moon, or Mars. The modern psychohistorian presumes that historical events such as revolutions or wars are catalyzed by numerous societal factors. For example, one could say the French Revolution was caused by: 1) rising bread prices; 2) revolts of serfs; 3) external wars.

The modern psychohistorian works to identify the factors that cause events, and assumes that if these factors reappear in modern times, it’s likely that the historical event catalyzed by those factors will occur again soon. For example, if bread prices were rising in Greenland, and the Greendlandese serfs were revolting, and there was a war in Iceland and Canada, psychohistoric theory would state that there was a high chance of a Greenland Revolution.

With this information, psychohistorians would determine how much each factor would need to be changed to lower the chances of a Greenland Revolution. They may, for example, subsidize bread prices in Greenland, knowing this will prevent revolution.

It hardly takes a second glance to see the complexity of actually implementing this proposal, where one would have to account for hundreds of both concrete and abstract historical factors. This would require an immense amount of resources and a large quantity of honest, dedicated thinkers from all academic areas. Not to mention the necessary secrecy– psychohistory may not yield accurate results for populations aware that psychohistory is being used to “predict” their future.

Intrigued?

I’ll be laying out the above proposal in more detail, along with its complications, in my Psychohistory Part 1 subpage (not yet published).

More stuff will come under Psychohistory Part 2, 3, 4, etc.

Each new Part (each its own subpage) will be accompanied by a short Post summarizing it.