Apologies for the lack of figures and weird format – the website wouldn’t let me upload my fine because it was too large
Rachel Barnes
Professor Gieseking – Digital Image of the City Final Research Paper, Due 12/17/2014 at 5pm
Portland Flood Response App, Website, and Road Signage
Research Question:
With industrial and technological development booming since the end of the 19th century, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have risen and continue to rise at an increasing rate. The increasing greenhouse gas content within the atmosphere causes an increase in the warming Greenhouse Effect that produces an increase in global temperatures. Increases in global temperatures result in melting polar ice caps and land ice reservoirs, both contributing to sea-level rise over the past century, and an expansion of the oceans in a process called thermal expansion, further contributing to sea-level rise. The rising sea-level particularly affects populations and infrastructure on coastlines as they reside in areas that are most at risk of experiencing large storm surges or flooding events. As a result of these changes in global climate, Portland, Maine has experienced roughly 1.9 mm/year in sea-level rise along its coasts over the past century (Urban Land Institute, 2014). Sea-level has risen more than half a foot over the past 90 years according to a NOAA Tidal Gauge in Portland and many scientists project another 2-3 foot increase in sea-level by 2100 (Maine Geological Survey, 2007).
The sea-level rise coupled with the heightened energy in the weather and climate systems has the capacity to create larger, more powerful, and more frequent storms that damage Maine’s beautiful coastline and the industry that these regions bring the state (Urban Land Institute, 2014). I propose a policy recommendation to create a flood preparation and evacuation plan specifically tailored for Portland in the form of a smart-phone app and physical road signage detailing evacuation routes, emergency information, and weather updates. As described by Graham et al. (2012), “everyday life in urban places is increasingly experienced in conjunction with, and produced by, digital and coded information” (2). Because of this shift towards digital and coded information, I think that it would be most beneficial if Portland were to create this flood evacuation plan in the form of an electronic app and website so that it can be used and adapted to changing technology for many decades to come.
Furthermore, I propose that in order to help mitigate the damage of a serious flooding event, Portland should create a policy for limiting how close developers and industries can build to the changing coastline. I think that this is important because Portland infrastructure potentially should be sustainable and though it may not be affected by the expected 2-3 ft sea-level (Urban Land Institute, 2014) rise over the coming decades, it will likely be affected later in the century. Additionally, I suggest that Portland, Maine continue to take precaution against protecting the coastlines with more natural buffers against erosion like coastal bluffs or wetland conservation programs in an effort to avoid coastal land loss or wetland transgression inland.
Approach to the common good for the city:
As cities are ever changing and incredibly diverse, I propose that a policy recommendation with the intent of improving ‘the common good’ of the city has to have both a spatial and a temporal component. I propose that a smart city recommendation for improving the common good in Portland is something that benefits the most people possible and furthermore benefits them well into the future. I do believe that the Portland City Council is greatly concerned with the common good with regards to sea-level rise and flood preparedness as they have requested and conducted multiple different studies to gauge the timeline, likelihood, and potential damages that are associated with these incumbent flooding events. That being said, the next step in helping the common good is to create a reaction plan and to educate the City’s residents on the potential dangers of the their changing coastlines in the coming decades.
With regards to infrastructure, I proposed that this Flood Response App will be incredibly beneficial to the common good as it creates a service that initially directly improves residents’ quality of life as it allows them a certain piece of mine through educating them of the potential risks and providing them information as to how to minimize their potential losses. Furthermore, in the case of a natural disaster or flood episode, the City will have created accessible and visible evacuation plans and services to help all different demographics, specifically ages, of residents at risk. This smart city policy recommendation allows for long-term benefits to the common good and is easily executable. Outside creating the application, all the app requires is educating Portland’s residents on their evacuation route options in a flooding emergency. Though the risk of serious flooding or flood damage is not presently high, it is important that the City of Portland take action now so that they can mitigate and avoid potential problems in the future. As described by Fields and Uffer, City Councils “need to find a way to forge critical urban politics of finance focused on common welfare rather than short-term objectives of growth and competition” (13) and that the Portland City Council takes the time now and prepare the city for the impacts of future climate change.
Although substantial sea-level rise (2-3 ft) will likely not affect Portland until 2100, many commuters and residents alike complained about the lack of flood preparedness and parking during rain events this past summer. Bernie, a 21-year-old commuter from Brunswick, Maine, described the flooding and parking problems that regularly plagued the city as he commuted to work this past summer. While he was creating a mental map for this study, he suggested that the City have better planning for diverting traffic and more available alternative parking for those areas and residents affected by flooding episodes.
Approach to the smart city:
A phone application and coupled website designed to inform Portland residents of the flood warnings or storm surge events that could potentially occur in the city involves combining many different types of streaming data (weather data, emergency contact information, live updates on areas at risk, etc.) into one, smooth application and website. That being said, the application would have an offline component which would allow Portland residents to still examine the flood zones (of varying intensity based on the storm surge), emergency contact information, and areas of higher elevation within the city on their phones for times when electricity or cell phone service may be down. In addition to the application’s offline component, there should also be incredibly visible signage all across the city showing the same topography, flood zone, emergency contact information, and evacuation plans, so that those residents or tourists without access to the internet can also move to safety in the event of a flood in Portland. An ideal place for these signs and information would be at every bus stop.
The application would also be used as a way to connect emergency services and flood victims. The application could be used to either request emergency help or to let the emergency services know that specific residents are safe and healthy – this service would be especially important for the elderly and minor population as they may require more assistance in natural disasters. Additionally, this last component of this flood response application could serve for a way for more long distance family members to check up on the status of their family or request information as to whether they have been located by emergency services. As the emergency services personnel rescue or help individual residents, they could also use the app as an online message board or database for all individuals that have been found or are missing.
Literature review:
There have been many inquiries by the Portland City Council to obtain as much information as possible about which areas and infrastructures are most at risk from the incumbent sea-level rise. After a 1995 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report titled Anticipatory Planning for Sea-Level Rise Along the Coast of Maine, the City became more aware of the threats to their coastlines. The report compiled information from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from 1992 that stated that the international science community projects an accelerated rate of sea-level rise as a result of global climate change associated with the greenhouse effect. Similarly, the IPCC projects that there will be a global rise in sea-level in the range of 33-110 cm (1.08 – 3.61 ft) by the year 2100. The EPA report argues that the United States IPCC recommends that coastal zone managers, i.e. the Portland City Council, evaluate impacts on sea-level rise based on considerations of at least a 1.0 meter rise scenario for 2100 (EPA, 2014). Gordon Hamilton of University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute further supports the IPCC prediction of a 1m rise in sea-level by 2100 is supported by (Maine’s Coastline Program, 2007).
The EPA report also urges coastal communities in Maine to address the issue of flooding and sea-level rise now as there is a projected gradual onset of the issue, and there is time to make changes and an opportunity to avoid adverse impacts by acting now (EPA, 2014). The EPA moreover urges Maine’s coastal communities to seek “no regrets” strategies; no regret strategies are defined as strategies that the State will not regret implementing even if there is no acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise and strategies that recognize that sea-level rise is just one factor affecting coastal land loss (EPA, 2014). The report concludes by recommending that “the state should protect and strengthen the ability of natural systems to adjust to change in shoreline position” (11) and that “the state should prevent new development which is likely to interfere with the ability of natural systems to adjust to changes in shoreline position” (11).
There exist many other reports stemming from this initial EPA report (Anticipating Rising Seas from the Maine Coastal Program (2007) and the Waterfronts of Portland and South Portland Maine from the Urban Land Institute (2014)) and it is clear that the City Council is making the appropriate moves to prepare for sea-level rise in the future. Unfortunately, the council has yet to create any publically available response or evacuation plans.
The Maine Coastal Program report reiterates the same information as the EPA report did in 1995, but is more accessible and easily understandable, suggesting that its target audience was less scientific or political and more of a residential audience. The report emphasized the evidence of an increase in global temperatures and its contribution to more energy to the climate system in general. The report describes the stronger winds, larger waves, larger storm surges, and more erosion associated with a higher energy system. The report also warns residents of the economic impacts of such a shift in sea-level and its associated impacts in terms of the clamming and lobster industries along the coast of Maine (Maine Coastal Program, 2007).
As described by Stephen Dickson of the Maine Geological Survey, the increased energy within the weather system resulting from increasing global temperatures has a drastic effect on the intensity of weather events in coastal regions. He states that “storm surge from more intense weather systems could compound the damaging effects of sea-level rise” (1) and that coastal Maine is largely affected by Nor’easters, in which rapid changes in wind direction and currents combine to pile water along the coast and cause hefty erosion and flooding damage to coastal areas. According to Dickson, during such storm events, water levels could increase an additional 1 to 3 feet on top of the already rising sea-levels (Maine Coastal Program, 2007). Dickson and Peter Slovinsky, also of the Maine Geological Survey, argue that the densest population in Maine (York and Cumberland Counties) coincides with the most vulnerable coastal geology (sandy beaches, estuaries, and mud and cobble bluffs). The coastal regions of York and Cumberland County could experience potentially major economic such as declines in tourism and loss of taxable revenue after the loss or submersion of expensive waterfront homes (Maine Coastal Program, 2007). Dickson suggests that towns should adopt new measures that anticipate sea-level rise such as planning boards revising floodplain ordinances to raise the minimum height for building 3 feet over the existing 1-foot freeboard (Maine Coastal Program, 2007).
In their Resolution Supporting the Development of a Sea-Level Rise Adaptation Plan (2011), Portland City Council agreed to accept a 3-6 feet sea-level rise over the next 100 years which may cause permanent flooding in certain low elevation areas of the City. The council agreed that potential permanent flooding represents an economic, cultural, ecological, and public infrastructure loss to the City and that the Portland City Council supports the development of a sea-level rise adaptation plan (Portland City Council, 2011). That being said, I urge the City Council to explore the many different ways that a cell phone application and website can aid residents and their families during natural disasters.
There are many other instances of natural disasters where social media and technology have been used to aid or search for missing persons. More specifically, Twitter was arguable the most reliable source for live news updates and information for New York City, NY during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Luckily, in New York, although millions of people lost power during the storm, individuals were still able to access the Internet on their mobile devices. Multiple different large media groups like Huffington Post and the news aggregator BuzzFeed experienced failing servers and therefore turned to Twitter and other social media to deliver information and reports about the storm. According to Twitter, people tweeted more that 20 million times about Hurricane Sandy from October 27th to November 1st and the most popular conversation on Twitter was about news and information, followed by photos and videos, then hopes and prayers for safety (Pew Research Journalism Project, 2012).
Additionally, after the earthquake in Turkey in 2011, Google launched a Person Finder app designed to help victims find missing loved ones. This project was first developed in response to the earthquake in Haiti in 2010 and has been deployed in several other disaster zones like Japan after their tsunami in 2011 since. The application was very simple and was created within a number of hours; users could either enter information on the person they were looking for or add information about people who are not already accounted for (Toor, 2014). It is this kind of combination between online, live news outlets (similar to Twitter during Hurricane Sandy in 2012) and a Person Finder app (similar to Google’s app during the earthquake in Turkey in 2011) that I think would be most beneficial for the City of Portland to develop for flood response.
In a 2013 article from the Bangor Daily News, titled Sea-level rise will wash away $46.4 million worth of Portland’s Commercial Street Properties by 2100, architects say, Seth Koenig describes the potential economic impacts of rising sea-levels and larger storm surges on Portland’s Commercial Street. He writes that nearly $33 million in flood damage will occur along Portland’s low-lying and high-traffic Commercial Street area by 2050 due to sea-level rise. According to the report released by local group, Portland Society for Architecture and analysis done by the consulting firm, Scarborough-based Catalysis Adaptation Partners, losses will actually amount to $111 million by 2100 resulting from sea-level rise. The $46.4 million dollar loss represents the specific land parcels that will be inundated by water on a daily basis resulting from high tides if no changes are made. These estimates are made specifically for Portland’s waterfront Commercial Street and Old Port, and do not take into account Back Cove or the city’s Bayside neighborhood which are also considered at high risk for sea-level rise and associated storm surges (Bangor Daily News, 2013).
Methods:
In order to understand the types of smart city solutions that Portland would most benefit from, I researched various smart city solutions that would benefit both already existing non-smart cities that are taking steps to become more ‘smart’ (i.e Portland, Maine or New York, New York) and already existing smart cities (i.e Songdo, South Korea). After this research, I executed a transect walk through Munjoy Hill in Portland, a Café Ethnography in Speckled Ax Café, and collected four mental maps from three residents and once commuter in Portland. After determining that a Flood Response application was most beneficial to Portland, I collected various sets of Portland age distribution data from U.S Census data off Social Explorer. I focused mainly on the elderly population (65+) and the minor population (18-) as they are both potentially the most at risk to both present flood risks and future flood risks as sea-levels are expected to rise over the next 85 years. I combined the U.S census data with multiple data layers such as elevation (topography), flood zones, and locations of hospitals and fire stations from the City of Portland in an effort to assess the riskiest locations in terms of flood risk over the next 85 years . The following maps are the maps created from these various data sources with the program QGIS.
As seen in figure 1, there are various areas that are particularly at risk to flooding in Portland. The areas that are especially at risk are the East Bayside and West End neighborhoods and the areas surrounding the Fore River, just south of the City. Furthermore, there are more areas in central Cumberland County, outside of the city of Portland, that also lay in flood zones. Additionally, the contours in figure 2 addresses the fact that other areas in and around Portland are also at risk as they sit at or below sea-level. The other areas that are of high risk to flooding are Back Cove and the area between Libbytown and West End. As seen in figure 3 (following page), the largest populations of elderly people exist in the more northern parts of Cumberland County and in Back Cove. As seen in figure 2 and 1, back cove is in a very low-lying area and therefore has a very high risk of flooding.
As seen in figure 4 (following page), there are fewer minors living in the coastal regions and there are higher minor populations living in the Northern regions of Cumberland County. Additionally, is a relatively large population of minors in East Bayside and Back Cove, both regions that are at a high risk of flooding within the coming decades.
As seen in the map in figure 5, the areas that are most heavily populated with elderly residents (Back Cove and the region just north of Back Cove) are also the same regions that lay below sea-level. Additionally, in figure 6 (below), the largest population of minors, in the more northern parts of Cumberland county, also coincide with the regions of the county that are most at risk for flooding and sea-level rise in the coming decades. In a hypothetical situation, if these current minors were to grow up and live their entire lives in these neighborhoods in Portland and Cumberland county, they theoretically would be part of the elderly population that is seriously at risk by the time climate change and sea-level rise sets in later in the century.
Reflections/Discussion:
As seen in the maps above, a large portion of Portland’s land sits at an elevation below sea-level. These low-lying areas have a current high flooding risk, even before sea-level rises. That being said, the flood zone areas that the City of Portland outlined in 2009 do not necessarily cover these regions. This could be for many different reasons – potentially the bedrock in these areas is impervious and therefore when inundated with water, the water quickly runs off to other regions of low elevation. That being said, I would suggest that the areas of elevation in Cumberland County that are below sea-level should be added to the flood zones. Additionally, there are fire stations that sit in the middle of low-elevation and flood zone regions. These locations are both potentially great and potentially horrendous ideas. On the one hand, the emergency services would be close to those residents in, but on the other hand, the stations and all of their equipment would also be flooded, making it difficult for the emergency services to do aid flood victims.
Moreover, there are large areas in Portland and the greater Cumberland County that run a high risk of flooding as they have such shallow topography and that also have large elderly populations, specifically Back Cove and the region just north of there. It is incredibly important that there are clear and visible signs in this region for evacuation routes and flood plans to regions of higher elevation and that there are easily accessible roadways for emergency services to aid these regions as well as hospitals. Perhaps large amounts of road signage may be considered extreme or expensive and therefore not worth it. I would argue that it will be worth it in the long run and I would further suggest that the City of Portland encouraging elderly residents to avoid living in the Back Cove, West End, or Fore River areas in an effort to avoid potential flood risks and hazards in the future.
Conclusion:
Though these plans seem premature as there is a relatively small risk of flooding in the next few years, having plans in place now will simply mean that the City of Portland is prepared in the coming decades when sea-level rise when flooding may become a problem. Additionally, one may argue that making such large policy changes to building distributions along the coast is detrimental to the current flow of the city and the city’s coastal economic activity, I would respond with an idea from Sorkin (1999) about the reciprocity within cities – “Cities are reciprocal, open and flexible ensembles and can continuously remold themselves through repeated social interactions”. If the City of Portland were to commit to this flood response plan and policy recommendation now, it would adapt and become a stronger, more prepared, and smarter city in the future.
Works Cited:
Fields, Desiree., Uffer, Sabina. “The Financialisation of Rental Housing: A Comparative Analysis of New York City and Berlin.” Urban Studies July 2014 (2014).
Graham, Mark. “Augmented Reality in Urban Places: Contested Content and the Duplicity of Code.” Transactions of the Insitute of British Geographers (2012).
Guskin, Emily., (2012) “Hurricane Sandy and Twitter.” In Pew Research Journalism Project: PEJ New Media Index.
Koenig, Seth. “Sea-Level Rise Will Wash Away $46.4 Million Worth of Portland’s Commercial Street Properties by 2100, Architects Say.” Bangor Daily News October 24th (2012).
City of Portland., GIS Data, 2014.
Coyne, J. R., Anton, J. M., Richards Waxman, D., Duson, J. C., (2011). Resolution Supporting the Development of a Sea-Level Rise Adaptation Plan. Portland City Council, July 18th.
Maine Coastal Program. “Anticipating Rising Seas.” Maine Coastline Winter (2007).
Simone, AbdouMaliq. “People as Infrastructure: Intersecting Fragments in Johannesburg.” The People, Place, and Space Reader (2004): 240-46.
Slovinsky, Peter. “Preparing Portland for the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise.” Maine Geological Survey (2011).
Sorkin, Michael. “Introduction: Traffic in Democracy “. The People, Place, and Space Reader (1999): 411-15.
Toor, Amar. (2011). “Google Launches Person Finder App Following Earthquake in Turkey.” www.engadget.com.
United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), (1995). Anticipatory Planning for Sea-Level Rise Along the Coast of Maine. In EPA (Ed.), Policy, Planning, and Evaluation.
Urban Land Institute. “Waterfronts of Portland and South Portland Maine.” In A ULA Advisory Services Panel Report, edited by James A. Mulligan. Washington, DC: Urban Land Institute, 2014.
U.S Census., Data, 2014